Effects of soil warming and nitrogen foliar applications on bud burst of black spruce

Key message: In mature black spruce, bud burst process is anticipated by soil warming, while delayed by foliar applications of nitrogen; however, the effects depend on growth conditions at the site. Abstract: The observation of phenological events can be used as biological indicator of environmental changes, especially from the perspective of climate change. In boreal forests, the onset of the bud burst is a key factor in the length of the growing season. With current climate change, the major factors limiting the growth of boreal trees (i.e., temperature and nitrogen availability) are changing and studies on mature trees are limited. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of soil warming and increased nitrogen (N) deposition on bud burst of mature black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP]. From 2008 onwards, an experimental manipulation of these environmental growth conditions was conducted in two stands (BER and SIM) at different altitudes in the boreal forest of Quebec, Canada. An increase in soil temperature (H treatment) and a canopy application of artificial rain enriched with nitrogen (N treatment) were performed. Observations of bud phenology were made during May–July 2012 and 2013. In BER, H treatment caused an anticipation (estimated as 1–3 days); while N treatment, a delay (estimated as 1–2 days but only in 2012) in bud burst. No treatments effect was significant in SIM. It has been demonstrated that soil temperature and N availability can play an important role in affecting bud burst in black spruce but the effects of these environmental factors on growth are closely linked with site conditions

Copula-based probabilistic assessment of intensity and duration of cold episodes: A case study of Malayer vineyard region

Frost, particularly during the spring, is one of the most damaging weather phenomena for vineyards, causing significant economic losses to vineyards around the world each year. The risk of tardive frost damage in vine-yards due to changing climate is considered as an important threat to the sustainable production of grapes. Therefore, the cold monitoring strategies is one of the criteria with significant impacts on the yields and prosperity of horticulture and raisin factories. Frost events can be characterized by duration and severity. This paper investigates the risk and impacts of frost phenomenon in the vineyards by modeling the joint distribution of duration and severity factors and analyzing the influential parameter’s dependency structure using capabilities of copula functions. A novel mathematical framework is developed within this study to understand the risk and uncertainties associate with frost events and the impacts on yields of vineyards by analyzing the non-linear dependency structure using copula functions as an efficient tool. The developed model was successfully vali-dated for the case study of vineyard in Malayer city of Iran. The copula model developed in this study was shown to be a robust tool for predicting the return period of the frost events

Future Exoplanet Research: Science Questions and How to Address Them

Started approximately in the late 1980s, exoplanetology has up to now unveiled the main gross bulk characteristics of planets and planetary systems. In the future it will benefit from more and more large telescopes and advanced space missions. These instruments will dramatically improve their performance in terms of photometric precision, detection speed, multipixel imaging, high-resolution spectroscopy, allowing to go much deeper in the knowledge of planets. Here we outline some science questions which should go beyond these standard improvements and how to address them. Our prejudice is that one is never too speculative: experience shows that the speculative predictions initially not accepted by the community have been confirmed several years later (like spectrophotometry of transits or circumbinary planets).Comment: Invited review, accepte

Supplying trees in an era of environmental uncertainty: identifying challenges faced by the forest nursery sector in Great Britain

In recent years, numerous articles have addressed management strategies aimed at assisting forests to adapt to climate change. However, these seldom take into account the practical and economic implications of implementing these strategies, notably, supply of forest plants and seed. Using semi-structured interviews with practitioners involved in the plant and seed supply chain in Great Britain, we highlight a series of practical and economic bottlenecks commonly encountered in the supply of locally sourced seed and domestically produced planting stock for native woodland and hedging markets. We find that adoption of alternative seed sourcing strategies, designed specifically to account for directional climate warming, is likely to exacerbate existing problems by adding further complexity to decisions nurseries make about tree species and seed origins to produce. The lack of long-term market predictability brought about by the current configuration of forestry grants and regulations and, in particular, the administrative systems for processing grant applications is identified as a major impediment to having a sustainable and competitive supply of home-grown and currently adapted planting stock. Finally, the time and effort it takes to supply healthy plants for native woodland creation projects deserves much wider recognition throughout the industry and will be crucial if planting objectives are to be met sustainably

Evolutionary responses of tree phenology to the combined effects of assortative mating, gene flow and divergent selection

The timing of bud burst (TBB) in temperate trees is a key adaptive trait, the expression of which is triggered by temperature gradients across the landscape. TBB is strongly correlated with flowering time and is therefore probably mediated by assortative mating. We derived theoretical predictions and realized numerical simulations of evolutionary changes in TBB in response to divergent selection and gene flow in a metapopulation. We showed that the combination of the environmental gradient of TBB and assortative mating creates contrasting genetic clines, depending on the direction of divergent selection. If divergent selection acts in the same direction as the environmental gradient (cogradient settings), genetic clines are established and inflated by assortative mating. Conversely, under divergent selection of the same strength but acting in the opposite direction (countergradient selection), genetic clines are slightly constrained. We explored the consequences of these dynamics for population maladaptation, by monitoring pollen swamping. Depending on the direction of divergent selection with respect to the environmental gradient, pollen filtering owing to assortative mating either facilitates or impedes adaptation in peripheral populations